Upside Inflation Risk Signaled

The  Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) 1/31/18 statement expressed a more confident expectation that inflation would reach its 2% target this year.   Perhaps it’s more confidant statement takes into account the stronger showing in the underlying inflation gauge (UIG) developed by the New York Fed. In developing this broader inflation gauge, the NY Fed assumed …

Congressional Guns and Butter

Today’s market decline, in our view, reflects concerns over the discretionary spending cap increases of nearly $300 billion written into the two-year bi-partisan budget agreement.  The two-year spending cap increases would bring discretionary spending in fiscal year 19 to a level nearly 25% greater than the roughly $1.2 trillion of discretionary spending in fiscal year …

Reaction to Market Melt Up—Higher Interest Rates

Reaction to Market Melt Up—Higher Interest Rates The sharp drop in the market today reflects, in our view, the normal market reaction likely after what some labelled a market melt up. The recent rise in long-term interest rates, reflecting both the fed’s less accommodative monetary policies and increased treasury borrowings, in part, can lead to …

Is The Stock Market Overvalued?

Investing #MarketMoves Investing #MarketMoves Jan 24, 2018 @ 11:31 AM 9,124 2 Free Issues of Forbes Adam Sarhan , Contributor Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. A Wall Street sign is seen in front of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Monday, Dec. 18, 2017. Stocks kicked off …

Technology Capital Expenditures in the Chips

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal showed that the tech giant Samsung spent more on capital expenditures than did the two oil majors–Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell—combined (see table below. )  as someone who survived the tech bubble, it seems like déjà vu.  This article brought to mind the late 90’s during …

Government Shutdown

Investors face the possibility of a government shutdown this weekend.  Since we do not sit in Washington, we can only observe the Congressional antics from afar.   As I write this on Friday afternoon, the odds of a federal government shut down keep growing.   At the same time, according to the New York Times, democratic senate …

Highlights of the Proposed Unified Tax Reform Framework*

Lower Rates for Individuals and Families The framework shrinks the current seven tax brackets into three – 12%, 25% and 35% – with the potential for an additional top rate for the highest-income taxpayers to ensure that the wealthy do not contribute a lower share of taxes paid than they do today. Double the Standard …

Mid-Year Report 2017

This is our Midyear Report in which we will quickly cover general market conditions, portfolio commentary and our outlook. Your quarterly performance report is attached as well. Lastly, I want to give you an update on what is going on at First Capital. Check out the video above! Improving economic conditions and higher earnings helped …